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Deterrence (In)stability Between India and Pakistan

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Deterrence (In)stability Between India and Pakistan

Open access

Samenvatting

Since the introduction of India ’ s cold start and Pakistan ’ s full spectrum deterrence doctrines, the subcontinental deterrence landscape has been characterised by strong cross-domain dynamics. In extremis, if both states adhere to the threats issued in their doctrines a Pakistan-supported militant attack on Indian soil could escalate into an all-out nuclear exchange. It is a development that has been met with great concern by many analysts for its detrimental impact on deterrence stability. Since the doctrines are believed to have become operational, at least four incidents occurred which could have sparked this cross-domain escalation spiral. And yet, crisis behaviour proved vastly different from what doctrine predicted. What does this say about deterrence stability on the subcontinent? This chapter assesses deterrence stability on the basis of perfect deterrence theory, which is argued to provide a more nuanced view of deterrence relationships than classical deterrence theory. It fi nds support for the stability-instability paradox and argues that deterrence is less unstable than appears at fi rst sight. Furthermore, to fully appreciate the degree of deterrence stability, it is suggested that the factors ‘ context ’ and ‘ narrative ’ should be included into the equation.

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Trefwoorden
OrganisatieMinisterie van Defensie - NLDA
AfdelingFaculteit Militaire Wetenschappen
Gepubliceerd inNL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020 : Deterrence in the 21st Century--Insights from Theory and Practice T.M.C. Asser Press, Den Haag, Pagina's: 215-230
Jaar2020
TypeBoekdeel
ISBN9789462654198
TaalEngels

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