Samenvatting

It is expected that future transportation technologies will positively impact how passengers travel to their destinations. Europe aims to integrate air transport into the overall multimodal transport network to provide better service to passengers, while reducing travel time and making the network more resilient to disruptions. This study presents an approach that investigates these aspects by developing a simulation platform consisting of different models, allowing us to simulate the complete door-to-door trajectory of passengers. To address the future potential, we devised scenarios considering three time horizons: 2025, 2035, and 2050. The experimental design allowed us to identify potential obstacles for future travel, the impact on the system’s resilience, and how the integration of novel technology affects proxy indicators of the level of service, such as travel time or speed. In this paper, we present for the first time an innovative methodology that enables the modelling and simulation of door-to-door travel to investigate the future performance of the transport network. We apply this methodology to the case of a travel trajectory from Germany to Amsterdam considering a regional and a hub airport; it was built considering current information and informed assumptions for future horizons. Results indicate that, with the new technology, the system becomes more resilient and generally performs better, as the mean speed and travel time are improved. Furthermore, they also indicate that the performance could be further improved considering other elements such as algorithmic governance.